生产者博弈与市场的供需平衡

Decision Game Model for Producers and Balance between Supply and Demand in Production

针对影响市场供需平衡的动力学成因,基于生产者的博弈竞争,本文建立了能够反映产品价格波动的生产者竞争模型。利用模型研究了不同生产背景下,生产者其投资博弈行为对市场平衡过程的影响。结果表明:两类决策者不同的数量规模将会引发不同的市场平衡过程。产品起始条件为供过于求时,逆势生产者占总生产投资者的比例在小、中范围内,市场可走向平衡;供不应求时,在任何比例下,市场均会达到平衡。结合价格变化趋势,研究结果还表明:只有两类生产者数量所占比例在一定范围内才能促使市场向良性方向发展。生产者投资行为选择的盲从性,即选择一种投资模式的生产者占据主导地位时,市场最终将走向崩溃,说明生产者博弈竞争行为的存在是促使市场健康有序发展的根本原因之一。

An evolutional model is proposed by considering the game behavior of producers and the dynamic cause of market balance. The effect from game competition of producer is studied under different production background. The results reflect that the proportion of two types of producers will cause different trend of market balance. When the initial condition is in oversupply, the market can balance under medium and small proportions of the two types of producers. It is worthwhile to note that the market can balance under any proportions with inadequate supply. The results also indicate that reasonable proportions of the two types of producers can promote the market to develop well. When a type of producer holds a leading postion, the market will drift towards breakdown. These conductions prove that the game behavior of producers is a fundamental reason to lead to a healthy and orderly development of the marketa.