产业结构调整、能源要素流动与能源生产率增长——基于结构红利假说的实证分析

Industry Structure Adjustment,Energy Factor Shift and Energy Productivity Growth ——Based on the Structural Bonus Hypothesis

本文依据2000—2009年全国数据研究发现,能源生产率的变化呈现三阶段特征,运用结构红利假说理论及shift-share方法分析结果表明:(1)能源生产率增长主要来自于内部增长效应,尤其是第三、二产业,而第三产业主要来自于金融和房地产业,第二产业主要来自于工业;(2)2002—2009年的两个时段存在结构负利是能源要素从第一产业流向第二、三产业的工业化和城市化所致,且产业层面结构效应的负作用逐渐增强;(3)产业内部能源要素的合理流动有助于各产业能源生产率增长;(4)当第一产业能源消费比重达到合理水平并不再下降,能源要素从第二产业流向第三产业时,合理的结构红利就会呈现。

Some scholars believe that industrial structure adjustment has greater influence on energy efficiency by the econometrical method,whereas others hold that the contribution of industrial structure adjustment to energy efficiency is marginal,even negative.In view of the difference,this paper studies the structural effect at different stages and levels from the perspective of energy factor mobility.This paper also adopts the structural bonus hypothesis and shift-share method in order to find a way to improve energy productivity.The energy productivity in China from 2000 to 2009 experienced three stages of changes.The study divides the energy history in China into three periods （2000-2002,2002-2005,and 2005-2009） and three levels.The empirical results show that：（1） The energy productivity primarily grows from the within growth effect in the tertiary and secondary industry,especially in financial and real estate sectors in the tertiary industry.The negative influence of industrial structure effect is ever-increasing.In the three periods,the contribution rates of the within growth effect to the nationwide energy productivity growth are 94.59％-108.7％,and 39.16％-56.20％ in the tertiary industry,and 28.03％-53.77％ in secondary industry.The contribution rates of financial intermediation and real estate for the within growth effect of the tertiary industrial energy productivity are 42.56％-75.35％,the contribution rates of wholesale,retail trades,hotels and catering services are 17.89％-40.81％,and the contribution rates of transport,storage and post are 4.47％-16.66％.The contribution rates of the change of industrial energy productivity to secondary industrial energy productivity growth are 80.23％-91.81％.（2） The structural burden exists in the two stages in 2002-2005 and 2005-2009,induced by the urbanization and industrialization in which the energy factors shift from the primary industry to the secondary and tertiary industries.In the three periods,its structure effect is 0.09％,-0.49％ and-1.66％ on the industry level.（3） The reasonable shift of energy factors in the industry might speed the energy productivity growth in each industry.In the three periods,the rate of structure effect is 0.109％,-0.481％ and 0.421％ within the second industry,while the rate of structure effect is-0.254％,-0.589％ and 2.594％ within tertiary industry.While the structural burden is translated into the structural bonus,it cannot be ignored.（4） Assuming that other conditions remain the same,the sound structural bonus will appear when the energy consumption of the primary industry reaches a reasonable level and the energy factor shifts from the secondary to the tertiary industry.