第8-12届全运会女子七项全能运动员成绩分析及预测模型的建立

Gray Correlative Analysis on Performance of Our Elite Women Heptathlon Athletes and the Establishment of Gray GM Prediction Model in the 8-12 National Games

主要运用文献资料法、数理统计法对我国女子七项全能运动员的成绩进行了数据统计及关联度分析。结果表明:女子七项全能总成绩中影响最大的单项成绩是100m栏,其次是铅球和跳远,然后是200m,相对影响较小的是800m和跳高,而总分与各类项目的关联中,速度类项目与总分的关联度最高,其次是投掷类项目而对于耐力类和跳跃类项目尤其是跳跃类项目相比较而言关联度最低。基于灰色建模理论的灰色预测法,建立我国女子七项全能的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,为我国女子七项全能运动的发展趋势进行预测提供理论性依据。

This paper mainly using the literature material and mathematical statistics method to analyze the a -chievement of our elite women heptathlon athletes .The results show that the greatest impact on total score is the 100m hurdles,the secondly is the shot , long jump and 200m.800m and the high jump is the weakness of the pro-ject .In the total score associated with the various project , the speed projects is the highest correlation .In order to find out the features of performance of our elite heptathlon athletes and provide theoretical basis to forecast .With the theory of gray modeling to establish women ’ s heptathlon gray GM prediction model .