诱导信息下驾驶员路径选择行为建模研究

Modeling of route choice behavior response of a driver to variable message signs

为定量分析可变信息标志(VMS)对驾驶员路径选择行为的影响,采用SP调查进行调研,使用SPSS 20.0分析数据,建立了VMS诱导信息下驾驶员改变路径频率的有序多分类Logit模型。同时针对有重叠路段的路径选择,构建了考虑VMS显示状态的C-Logit模型。有序多分类Logit模型计算结果表明,影响驾驶员改变路径频率的主要影响因素为性别、学历、车辆类型、出行活动、VMS准确率。C-Logit模型计算结果表明,驾驶员对路径的理解时间与实际行驶时间存在较大差距,导致驾驶员选择路径比较集中,没能实现交通流在路网中的合理分配。

We make SP survey to quantitatively analyze the impacts of variable message sign （VMS） on route choice behavior of a driver.We employ the software SPSS 20.0 to analyze the data,and construct multicategory ordinal Logit model to research guidance information based route choice behavior response of a driver.We further construct a C-Logit model involving VMS display condition for the route choice of overlapping routes.Calculation conclusion of the multicategory ordinal Logit model shows that the main elements affecting route choice behavior of a driver are gender,education level,car types,travel activity and VMS accuracy.Calculation results of the C-Logit model demonstrate that greater difference exists between the understanding travel time and real travel time.That leads to more convergent route selection,which fails to achieve the rational distribution of traffic flow in road network.