“三驾马车”与福建经济增长的动态关系——基于时变参数状态空间模型的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Dynamic Relationship between the Tvoika and Fujian's Economy Growth ——Based on Time-Varying Parameter State Space Model

基于福建省地区生产总值、消费、投资和净出口数据,构建了揭示"三驾马车"与福建经济增长间动态关系的变参数状态空间模型,分析了其动态变化的轨迹与趋势。实证结果表明:"三驾马车"对福建经济增长的拉动作用具有明显的阶段性特征,虽然投资的拉动作用一直超过消费和净出口,但2005年后消费的拉动作用在稳步增强而投资的拉动作用在逐年减弱,说明福建经济对投资的依赖性正在下降,经济转型早已开始并且趋势稳定,正在稳步进入可持续的发展轨道,政府无需做过多的干预。

Based on time-varying parameter state space model, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between the socalled three driving forces and the growth of Fujian＇s economy. It shows that the tvoika are characterized by significant phase features that though investment is still the major driving force, its driving momentum is falling irreversibly, whereas consumption acceleration is rising steadily, leading to an inspiring conclusion that Fujian＇s economy has already been experiencing obvious and stable transformation for sustainable development, and that its dependence on investment is fading away.