从投资、消费、储蓄增长规律实证中国经济增长发展趋势

Research on the Growth Trends of Chinese Economy from the Perspective of Growth Discipline in Investment,Consumption,Savings

基于对哈罗德-多马模型的重新认识，结合中国新剑桥方程式及其货币供需方程式，提出并验证了投资经济增长模型。通过投资经济增长模型IV2=G以及IV=M揭示投资增长存在一个乘数效应，而该效应直接决定经济增长的高低，也直接决定货币供需变化。研究发现：近十多年来增长稳定在20%-30%之间的中国经济投资，使目前经济增长处于趋缓的6%～7.5%；但是，一旦消费增长，国民储蓄增加稳定，中国经济增长发展趋势将会高于目前，至少达到8%以上。该发现对中央以及各地方政府进行中长期投资规划，消费规划，以及储蓄规划具有现实意义；同时也为科学预测中国宏观经济增长走势和中央政府如何科学制定灵活的经济宏观调控政策奠定了坚实的理论基础。

Based on the re-understanding of Harrod-Domar model, combining with the new Cambridge equation of China and the equation of monetary supply and demand, this paper proposes and validates the investment model of economic growth. By investing in economic growth model of IV2=G and IV=M, a multiplier effect has been revealed, which directly determines the level of economic growth and the changes of currency supply and demand. The result has reached that China investment keeping growing between 20%and 30%stably in the past 10 years makes the current economy slowing down at between 6%and 7.5%. However, Chinese economic growth will trend to be higher, at least up to more than 8%with the stability of consumption and savings increase, which is of greatly practical significance for the central and local government investment in long-term planning, consumption planning and savings planning. Meanwhile, the finding will lay a solid theoretical basis for the central government in how to formulate a flexible macro-economic regulation and control policy.