基于组合预测方法的民航旅客吞吐量预测研究——以首都机场为例

Civil aviation passenger throughput forecasting research based on combination forecasting method——Capital Airport

"十二五"是中国民航业发展的黄金时期,机场民航旅客吞吐量也将呈快速发展态势。首都机场是中国最大的民用机场,通过科学合理的方法对其旅客吞吐量进行预测的研究意义重大。利用最新历史数据,采用多元线性回归模型和时间序列趋势外推模型,分别对首都机场2012—2016年的旅客吞吐量进行预测。为了克服两种单一预测方法的缺陷,采用组合加权方法对预测结果进行组合预测。最后,根据组合预测值和历史值的误差比较分析。研究结果表明:组合预测方法能够提高预测的准确性,减少预测误差。

＂Twelve Five＂ development period will be the golden age of China＇s civil aviation industry. Aviation passenger throughput will be also rapidly added. Beijing Capital International Airport is the largest civilian airport. It will be significant to research its passenger throughput by scientific and rational method. This passage makes full use of the latest historical data, using multiple linear regression models and time series trend extrapolation model to predict the 2012-2016 passenger throughput of Beijing Capital International Airport. In order to overcome the defects of the two single methods, the portfolio weighting method will be used to determine the results. Finally, a combination of predictive value and historical value of the error analysis results show that： the combination forecasting method can improve the forecast accuracy and reduce forecast error.