城镇居民国内旅游消费与可支配收入增长的动态关系——基于中国1988—2011年数据的实证检验

Study on the Dynamic Relationship of Domestic Tourism Consumption of Urban Residents and Disposable Income Growth Per Capita——Based on the Empirical Data between 1988—2011 Years in China

选取1988—2011年数据,运用协整检验方法,对我国城镇居民旅游消费与可支配收入动态关系进行实证研究。结果表明,城镇居民国内旅游消费与人均可自由支配收入增长之间存在长期均衡关系,城镇居民人均可支配收入是城镇居民国内旅游消费的格兰杰原因,城镇居民人均可自由支配收入每增加1%,城镇居民人均国内旅游消费将提高0.338 44%。因此,可通过提升可支配收入水平,增强居民出游动机,进一步完善假期制度及大力发展旅游业等措施带动居民旅游消费水平的提高,促进经济发展。

This paper selects 1988-2011 years＇ data to research the dynamic relationship between Domestic tourism consumption of urban residents and disposable income growth per capita with co - integration test method. The result shows that there exits the long -term equilibrium relationship between domestic tourism consumption of urban residents and disposable income growth per capita. And disposable income of urban residents per capita is the Granger cause of domestic tourism consumption of urban residents. Once disposable income of urban residents per capita is increased by 1 percentage point, the per capita consumption of domestic tourism of urban residents will increase 0. 338 44 percent. Therefore, we can drive the growth in population tourism consumption levels, and promote economic development by increasing the level of disposable income, and enhancing residents travel motivation, improving the vacation system, and vigorously promoting the development of tourism and other aspects.