无地农民为何不愿“农转非”

Research on the Influence Factors and Behavior Choice of Landless Farmers' Counter-urbanization

中国农民多年来的"农转非"梦想,现在却出现逆转:不仅有地农民不愿意放弃农村户籍进城落户,一些无地的农民也不愿意放弃农民身份进城成为市民。基于广东省的799份调查问卷和10多场访谈,通过Logistic模型对无地农民不愿"农转非"意愿的影响因素进行研究,并对放弃农转非的人群特征展开分析,构建无地农民城镇化的意愿分析框架,并尝试应用定量分析方法探讨影响放弃农转非的逆城镇化的具体经济社会因素,为加快推进新型城镇化发展提供理论支持和政策建议。

The Chinese peasantry's old dream of being urbanized is now completely reversed: not only those who possess agricultural land but also the landless farmers are reluctant to give up their rural household registration and barters for the identities of urban citizens. Based on the data of 799 pieces of questionnaire and more than ten interviews that are collected from Guangdong province, this paper applies the Logistic model to explore the factors that influence the landless farmers ' will of urbanization and the characteristics of this community, so as to construct the analysis framework of landless farmers ' will of urbanization. It also uses quantitative analysis method to explore the the specific social and economical factors influencing counter-urbanization, so as to provide theoretical support and policy suggestions to further the development of new urbanization.