我国现代服务贸易国际竞争力影响因素——基于1982—2012年时间序列分析

An Empirical Study on the Factors Influencing International Competitiveness of China's Modern Service Trade-Time Series Analysis Base on 1982-2012 Data

总结了近年来我国现代服务贸易的发展情况及国际竞争力。根据经典的贸易理论选择研究变量,采用1982年-2012年时间序列数据,对我国现代服务贸易出口国际竞争力的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明,技术进步、服务贸易开放度、人力资本规模和产业结构是促进我国现代服务贸易出口国际竞争力的重要因素,而人力资本质量和资本开放度对我国现代服务贸易出口国际竞争力有负向作用。

This paper summarizes the development trend of modern service and its international competitiveness in China. According to classic trade theory ,it chooses the variables. Based on the time series date between 1982 and 2012 ,it analyzes the factors influencing international com-petitiveness of China’s modern service trade export. The research indicates that technology progress ,openness of service trade ,scale of human capital and industrial structure are the influential promoting factors ,while the quality of human capital and capital openness are the inhibiting factors .