云南省洱源县山区村级尺度的钉螺时空分布格局研究

Study on spatio- temporal pattern of mountainous Oncomelania hupensis snails at village scale in Eryuan County,Yunnan Province

目的基于贝叶斯模型构建山区钉螺与感染性钉螺的时空分布模型,分析钉螺与感染性钉螺的时空格局变化,识别其在村级水平的时空分布规律。方法利用云南省洱源县2000-2006年的现场钉螺调查与实验室检测数据及村边界等空间数据,采用贝叶斯模型构建村级水平间的钉螺与感染性钉螺时空独立与交互模型,分析钉螺与感染性钉螺的时空格局变化,并识别其时空分布规律。结果钉螺分布时空交互模型和感染性钉螺时空独立模型的拟合优度稍强于其它模型。钉螺时空交互模型的空间相关系数的95%可信区间包括0;感染性钉螺时空独立模型的空间与时间相关系数分别为-0.63和0.28,但95%可信区间包括0,提示钉螺与感染性钉螺村级尺度的空间相关系数与时间相关系数均无统计学意义。结论研究区域的山区钉螺与感染性钉螺在村级间无显著性时空相关性,提示山区钉螺研究应开展更小尺度下的研究。

Objective To develop a spatio-temporal model of mountainous Oncomelania hupensis snails based on the Bayes-ian model,and to analyze and identify the spatio-temporal pattern at a village scale. Methods The data including the intensity and spatial distribution of live and infected snails from 2000 to 2006 and the village boundary were collected. The independent and interactive spatio-temporal models were established,and then the best fitness model was selected to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of live and infected snails. Results The interactive model of live snails and the independent model of infected snails were relative fitness models,and the models showed 95%CI（confidence interval）of the spatial and temporal coefficient included ze-ro,and indicated that the spatial and temporal correlation of live and infected snails was not significant at a village scale. Conclu-sion There is no significant spatial and temporal correlation of live and infected mountainous snails at a village scale,and the fur-thermore study should be carried out at a small scale.