“周克华猜想”是谣言吗?——基于社会认知视角的案例分析

Is It A Rumor of Zhou Kehua Guess?——A Case Study Based on Social Recognition Perspective

本文对"周克华猜想"的生成和传播过程进行案例分析发现,虽然"周克华猜想"与事实完全不符,但它不是别有用心的人制造出来的谣言,而是人们基于社会推理得出的判断。其生成条件是:(1)作为认知对象的信息(包括事件本身的信息和政府应对行为)存在信度和逻辑缺陷;(2)初始事件以及后续刺激具有戏剧性;(3)认知者有自己特有的认知图式。所谓的"谣言"其实是认知者以自己特有的图式对信息进行选择和加工而得出的结论。政府辟谣的失败与动辄把质疑或流言当作谣言的惯性思维方式不无关联,对此必须引以为鉴。

Based on a case study of its origin and evolution,an interesting conclusion has been found that Zhou Kehua Guess is not a rumor but a reasonable inference by people,although it is not in accordance with the fact. This phenomenon is formed on these conditions: Firstly,as the object of recognition,the original information( including government action) is believable and logically deficient. Secondly,the initial accident and its development seem like a drama. Thirdly,people have a recognition paradigm in their own minds. By this kind of recognition paradigm,people select and reshape some information and draw a conclusion from it.Therefore,if government treated suspicion as a rumor and dealt with them incorrectly and carelessly,they would always be defeated. We should learn from it and avoid the same mistake.