临夏干旱与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件的相关分析

Correlation Analysis Between the Drought in Linxia and EI Nino-La Nina Phenomenon

根据临夏地区1950—2012年63年的气候资料，进行对厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜事件与临夏地区干旱的相关分析。结果表明：厄尔尼诺与拉尼娜事件与临夏降水有显著地相关关系。其置信水平达到99％。厄尔尼诺与临夏地区降水成负相关，降水平均减少量为9．1％～26.4％，有86．9％的年份符合这一规律。拉尼娜事件与临夏地区降水成正相关，降水平均增加量为9．7％～36．6％，有78．9％的年份符合这一规律。在每个年代的初期，临夏地区降水偏少几率较大，降水平均减少量为16．5％，厄尔尼诺事件出现的几率较大，为56．6％。

Using the rainfall datas of Linxia station from 1950 to 2012 ,this study analyzed the correlation between the drought in Linxia and EI Nino-La Nina phenomenon. The results showed that they had significant correlation,which pass the significant test at a level of 0.99 confidence. The precipitation in Linxia showed a negative correlation with EI Nino ,the average decrease of precipitation was 9.1%-26.4% ,and there were 86.9% years in accordance with this law. The precipitation in Linxia also showed a positive correlation with La Nina, the average increase of precipitation was 9.7%- 36.6% ,and there were 78.9% years in accordance with this law. The average decrease of precipitation was 16.5% at the beginning of each decade in Linxia,and the chance of El Nino events was 56.6%.