大兴安岭林区雷击火灾规律及概率分析

Lightning Fire Rules and Probability of Daxing'an Mountain

运用大兴安岭2000—2008年森林火灾和气象资料,对大兴安岭地区雷击火数据进行分析,总结出该地区雷击火发生的规律和特点。运用距离权重反比法对雷击火数据、雷电数据和气象要素资料的选取、匹配,通过对各因子间的相关性分析,建立雷击火与气温、湿度、气压、雷电数据等相关气象要素的火险报警模型,并对模型的准确率和实用性进行了验证。

We studied the rules and characteristics in the area of lightning fires with lightning fire data of 2000-2008 in the Daxing＇ an Mountain. We established the completed selection and matching the lightning fire data, lightning data and meteorological data by the Inverse Distance Weighting. We studied the correlation among various factors by using SPSS regression, established the fire alarm mathematical model between lightning fire and temperature, humidity, air pressure, lightning data and other related meteorological elements, and deduced the forest lightning fire alarm probability formula for Daxing＇ an Mountain. Finally, we vetified the accuracy and availability of the formula.