灾害应急状态终止的随机决策与仿真

Random decision and simulation for the state termination of disaster emergency

为确定灾害应急状态终止时间,通过对应急状态终止状态影响因素的分析,将应急状态分为应急紧张状态和应急稳定状态2种,针对各状态指标先期的统计数据,结合马尔科夫过程,寻找出应急状态进入稳态概率分布的最大时间N,然后运用最优停止理论在N中寻找出应急状态终止的最优时间,并建立应急状态终止的马氏链决策-最优停止理论模型.基于马氏链的灾害应急状态终止模型能较准确地对应急状态终止时间进行量化决策,且计算简便,易于计算机实现,具有较强的可操作性,所提出的模型为掌握应急所处状态和对应急状态终止时间进行决策提供了理论支持.

To determine the stop time of disaster emergency, the states of emergency were divided into two kinds of states, including emergency tension state and emergency stationary state after analyzing the influence factors of emergency termination states. Firstly, the maximum time N was found out by Markov decision model after the emergency state going into the stable phase, and then the optimal stop theory was used to solve the question of the emergency termination to find the most optimal termination time during the N, finally, the Markov chain＇s decision model of emergency state termination was established, which could accurately solve Lhe question of the quantification decision of the end time of emergency state, and the calculation was simple. Markov model provided the theory support for emergency termination decision.