新疆人口发展趋势及应对措施

Trend of Population Growth in Xinjiang and Measures

针对新疆人口现状,采用Verhulst人口发展方程对新疆50年来的人口总量、人口结构进行了预测。从预测结果可以看出:在今后50年内,新疆人口规模、老龄化指数将持续增长,2035年左右将突破3000万人;并在2035年进入老龄化社会,且老龄化发展速度很快;抚养指数继续上升,到2055年,老年抚养指数将超过少儿抚养指数。社会负担主要来源于人口老龄化。根据预测结果,给出了相应的应对措施。

The paper uses the Verhulst Population Equations to predict the total amount of the population in Xinjiang and the population structure in the near future 50 years based on the current population situations in Xinjiang. The forecast shows that in the future 50 years the population, especially the aged population will be increasing which will break thirty million in number till the year 2035, and that the aged population will go up rapidly and the China will enter the aged society in 2035. The forecast demonstrates that the dependency index continues to rise and the index of fostering the older will exceed that of bringing up children, which means that the aging of the population will become the main burden of the society. Based on the above prediction, the pa-per proposes corresponding measures.