基于前景理论的改进多路径交通分配模型

Improved Multi-path Assignment Model Based on Prospect Theory

传统的多路径分配模型只考虑路径的出行时间而忽略交通政策的引导作用,同时也无法考虑出行者主观因素对路径选择的影响,以及Logit模型的IIA特性.本研究考虑出行者在路径选择情况下的有限理性因素,并试图克服Logit模型的缺点,结合前景理论和Probit模型,建立了改进的多路径交通分配模型;结合拥挤收费政策,以一个算例分析模型参数变化对路径选择的影响;最后在参数确定的情况下,得到近似最优收费标准.结果表明,模型能够体现路网中交通流的分配,也能体现拥挤收费政策对路网流量的影响;参数θ越大,主导路径的优势越明显,当θ等于1.5时,近似最优收费标准为1.19元.

Traditional multi-path assignment model only considers route travel time and seldom takes the impact of traffic policy into account.Besides,the impact of traveller＇ s subjective factors on route choice and Logit model＇ s property of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives are also beyond consideration.Based on prospect theory and Probit model,this paper develops an improved multi-path assignment model trying to consider traveller＇ s bounded rationality under route choice making and to overcome the disadvantage of Logit model.A numerical example with congestion pricing policy is proposed to analyze the impact of parameter＇ s change of the model on route choice,and the approximately optimal pricing point is obtained under fixed parameter.The results show that the model can reflect assignment of traffic flows in the network and the impact of congestion pricing policy; the advantage of dominant path increases with the parameter θ growing; when θ equals 1.5,the approximately optimal pricing point is 1.19 RMB.