基于组合预测模型的滚装码头吞吐量预测

Throughput Prediction of Ro-Ro Terminal Based on Combination Forecasting Model

根据上海港滚装码头2006—2011年的吞吐量数据,采用时间序列法、灰色预测法以及相关性分析法等单项预测方法建立预测模型,计算发现相关性分析法预测的结果优于时间序列和灰色预测。建立最优线性组合预测模型并测算,证明该模型对于影响因素复杂且历史数据较少的滚装码头吞吐量预测具有较高的精度。

At present, there is less research on prediction of RO-RO terminal throughput. Time series forecasting method,the grey forecasting method and correlation analysis forecasting method based on the throughput data of Shanghai Ro-Ro terminal year from 2006 to 2011 are built. It turns out that correlation analysis forecasting method is better than the other two forecasting methods. Furthermore, the optimal linear combination forecasting model is proved to have high-accuracy and suitability on prediction of RO- RO terminal throughput with complex factors and less historical data.