基于脉冲响应的海洋经济与产业结构演进研究

Research on Marine Economy & Industrial Structure Development Based on Impulse Response

中国拥有丰富的海洋资源,海洋经济潜力巨大。海洋经济发展与海洋产业结构演进形成了良性的互动机制,但对其与内陆产业结构的研究不足。论述海洋经济与内陆产业结构演进的作用机制,并基于向量自回归模型实现海洋经济与产业结构演进的脉冲响应分析,得出海洋经济的发展短期内会促进第二产业的发展,长期内第二产业所占比例呈下降趋势,第三产业所占比例不断提高。结合中国海洋经济发展现状给出政策建议。

China has a rich marine resources and huge potential for development of marine economy. Marine economic development is forming a benign interaction mechanism with evolution of ocean industrial structure, but its research on inland industrial structure is still insufficient. The mechanism of marine economy and inland industrial structure evolution is discussed here, and impulse response analysis of marine economy and industrial structure evolution based on the VAR model is done. It is condudod that the development of marine economy will promote the development of secondary industry in short term,and in the long term the proportion of secondary industry will show a downward trend while the proportion of tertiary industry continuously improve. Combined with Chinese marine economic development status,policy recommendations are given.