东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区地震趋势分析

Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northeast China,north China and Taiwan

运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及相关预测方法，分析了东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区未来地震趋势，给出了这些地震区未来中强震、强震或大（巨）震的四要素预测结果.分析表明：菏泽-濮阳地震区、晋东北地震区、晋西南地震区、台湾南投地震区与花莲-台东地震区未来有大震或巨震事件发生；海城地震区、通辽地震区、阿荣旗-嫩江地震区、邢台地震区未来有中强震或强震发生；京津唐地震区未来10~20年在北京及其周边地区有发生强震的可能；郯庐断裂山东段地震区未来将发生MS 5.5级震群事件.本文得出的结论可供有关部门参考，以制定相应的防震减灾措施.此外，本文还给出了计算地震区CBS值时最小地震事件震级的选取方法.

According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us, the earthquake situations for some seismic zones in the northeast China, north China and Taiwan regions are analyzed in the present paper. Meanwhile, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the moderate-strong, strong earthquake or major （great） earthquake, are also presented. The results suggest that major （great） earthquakes will occur in Heze-Puyang, Shanxi northeast,Shanxi southwest, Taiwan Nantou and Hualian-Taidong seismic zones and that moderate-strong or strong earthquakes will occur in Haicheng, Tongliao, Arongqi-Nenjiang and Xingtai seismic zones. In addition, strong earthquake may happen in Beijing and its surrounding in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan seismic zone in the next 10~20 years. Furthermore, an earthquake with a magnitude of about 5.5 that can be regarded as a landmark event at the dilatation point of locked patch will happen in the seismic zone in Shandong section of Tanlu fracture zone. The department concerned should consider the conclusions obtained in this paper for taking precautions against earthquakes. A method to select minimum magnitude of seismic events in the historical earthquake data is also suggested when calculating the value of CBS in a seismic zone.