中国城镇化率与旅游发展指标面板数据分析

Analysis of Tourism Development Panel Data and Urbanization Rate of China

城镇化是拉动内需的重要驱动力,截至2011年中国城镇化率已达到51.27%,城镇化与旅游发展的相关性值得探讨。通过收集2005—2009年间全国31个省级行政单位的城镇化率以及旅游业发展主要指标数据,利用stata软件进行面板数据分析,发现各地区城镇化与国际旅游外汇收入、星级酒店床位数、旅行社单位数、旅行社组团国内旅游者人天数四项指标成正相关;而与接待入境旅游人数、旅游业从业人数、旅行社接待国内旅游者人天数情况成负相关关系。并根据数据分析结论建立城镇化与旅游发展相关性概念模型。

Urbanization is the one of the main driving forces to stimulate domestic demands. The urbanization rate in China has reached 51.27% in the year of 2011. The interactive relationship between urbanization and tourism development is worth exploring. By collecting the urbanization rate and the main indicators data of tourism development between 2005 and 2009 of 31 provinces, this paper analyzes the panel data with the use of stata software. The results show that the urbanization has a positive correlation with the international tourism for-eign exchange earnings, the amount of beds in Star hotel, the number of travel agency and the number of person and days of domestic tour organized by travel agency, but has a negative correlation with the reception of the num-ber of inbound tourism, the employment in tourism and the number of person and day of domestic tour organized by travel agency. We build a related conceptual model of urbanization and tourism based on data analysis.