我国房地产价格的影响因素及其未来趋势预测

Influencing Factors of Real Estate Price in China and its Trends Prediction

房地产价格过快增长无疑成为了近年来社会普遍关注的热点问题之一。造成我国房地产价格持续走高的原因也是众说纷纭。文章通过比较常见的几项影响国内物价水平的经济因素,通过实证的形式确定了人民币汇率和通货膨胀水平对房地产价格具有显著影响。同时运用模型预测并且结合2014年来人民币不断贬值的现状,经过分析后确定未来房地产价格将会在平稳中下降的结论。最后,文章提出了通过完善汇率政策并控制外汇数量;拓宽房地产市场融资渠道;控制通货膨胀水平等政策性意见来有效控制房地产价格,稳定持续推动国内经济发展。

The rapid growth of real estate price becomes one of the hottest issues of social concern in recent years. And there are many reasons caused the continuous rise of estate price. By comparing with several common economic factors affecting the domestic price level, this paper shows that the RMB exchange rate and inflation have a significant impact on real estate price. After an analysis which compared with the situation of the economy in 2014, we conclude that the estate price will decrease smoothly. Finally, the paper puts forward several policy suggestions, such as improving the exchange rate policy and controlling the amount of foreign exchanges, broaden-ing the financing channels of real estate market, controlling inflation and etc. to control estate price and to sustain-ably improve the economy development in China.