欧元区与美国之间的经济波动比较——基于开放RBC模型的分析

Comparative Analysis of the Euro Area and The U. S. Economic Fluctuations: Based upon Open RBC Model

欧元区和美国同为世界最大的发达经济体,但经济波动却存在差异。1970—1994年欧元区经济波动率小于美国,特别是投资的波动率只有美国的1/2;1995—2013年它们之间的经济波动差异缩小,同时协动性增强。本文构建的包含趋势性和暂时性冲击的开放RBC模型表明,趋势性冲击对于欧元区经济波动的重要性更大,暂时性冲击则主导了美国的经济波动,尽管欧元区的两类冲击的随机扰动都小于美国。脉冲响应分析表明,趋势性冲击和暂时性冲击所分别对应的持久性和暂时性收入改变,是这两大经济体的净出口呈现逆周期性的重要原因。

The United States and the euro area are the world＇s largest developed economies with significant dif- ferences in economic fluctuations. In 1970 - 1994 business volatility of the euro area is less than that of United States, and particularly the euro area＇s investment volatility is only half the U. S. ＇s. However, the differ- ences of economic fluctuations between two economies in 1995- 2013 shrink, while the co- movement among the two has enhanced. The article constructs a RBC model including trends and temporary shocks. The model＇s estimations show the trend shock plays a larger role in explaining the euro area＇s business fluctuations; while the temporary shock dominate the US＇s economic fluctuations. And the two types of disturbance in the euro area are smaller than those in US. The model does well in replicating the business fluctuation of two economies. Im- pulse response analysis shows that the trend shock and temporary shock correspond to the permanent and transi- tory income change separately, which cause the coutercyclicality of net exports in two economies.