人口老龄化与房价波动——来自中国的经验证据

Demographic Trends and House Price Fluctuation——Evidence from China

老龄化是否会引起房价的波动、直接影响中国房地产市场的平稳运行,进而影响国家经济安全与社会的和谐稳定。本文采用面板协整检验证明了人口年龄结构是房价波动的长期影响因素,并基于系统广义矩估计等方法,讨论了人口老龄化对我国房价波动的影响、区域差异、形成原因及政策建议。研究表明:人口老龄化曾对房价上涨起到推动作用,但从中长期来看,此趋势可能发生逆转。在东部地区,人口变量对房价的弹性最小,且青年人口比例与房价成反向关系,表明东部地区刚需人群支付能力与高房价间存在矛盾;在中、西部地区,青年人口价格弹性也较老年人口价格弹性更小,部分地区房价或已脱离实体经济,应予以足够重视。

This paper firstly shows that there is long- term relationship between demographic trends and house price fluctuation by employing panel cointegration test. It then discusses the effects, regional differences, causes and policies by using generalized method of moments. The conclusions are： firstly, population aging has positive impact on house prices, but it may reverse in the long term. Secondly, in eastern region, the effects of Demographic variables are weakest, and the proportion of the youth population has negative impact on house prices, indicating that the eastern people could not afford the high prices. Thirdly, in middle region and west- em region, the youth＇s price elasticity is smaller than the aged＇s. The growth of housing prices could not be well explained by information of economic fundaments which may need us pay more attention to.