人民币汇率出口价格传递效应的行业差异实证研究

A Empirical Study on Industry Variation of Exchange Rate Pass-through in China's Exports

文章基于行业出口单位价值数据,采用行业固定效应面板数据模型,实证估计人民币汇率出口价格传递效应的行业差异。研究表明人民币汇率出口价格传递率的行业差异大,制造业的传递率高于初级产品,对资源依赖性低的制造业高于资源依赖性高的制造业。但行业差异的关键影响因素不是汇率变动本身,而是不同行业的成本结构及其变动趋势。以上研究结果意味着通过汇率变动调整贸易收支的政策必须充分考虑中国贸易的商品结构和不同行业成本结构差异。

Based on data at industrial levels, this paper estimates ERPT of RMB into China＇ s exports and its variance across industries. It shows： 1）The ERPT of RMB into China＇ s exports is incomplete and PTM is prevalent; 2） Industrial variance in RMB＇ s ERPT to China＇ s exports is great with manufactures higher than the primary, the less resource-based manufactures higher than the more resource-based ones. However what account is not the fluctuations of the currency but the cost structures of different industries. The above estimation results imply： 1）The incomplete ERPT of RMB will weaken the policy effect of trade balance adjustment through foreign exchange rate; 2） An effective foreign exchange rate policy has to take the commodity structure of China＇ s exports and cost structure of different industries into consideration.