基于灰色模型的铁路桥梁裂缝劣化预测研究及应用

Grey Model-based Railway Bridge Crack Deterioration Prediction

铁路桥梁混凝土裂缝是较为常见的病害，该病害严重影响了铁路桥梁的使用寿命。针对铁路桥梁混凝土裂纹宽度发展，基于灰色系统理论，提出裂缝宽度非时距G M （1，1）预测模型。利用该预测模型，对桥梁裂缝劣化情况进行预测，辅助管理者制定经济合理的“壁可”法修补计划，进而保障桥梁状态良好、铁路行车安全。为说明预测模型的有效性，以神朔铁路悖牛川特大桥1996～2012年的桥梁裂缝测量数据进行验证，结果表明该预测模型可较为准确地预测桥梁裂缝宽度的变化，对桥梁养护维修管理有着重要意义。同时，分析了＂壁可＂法在悖牛川特大桥的应用，其对混凝土裂纹的修补效果显著。

The concrete cracks on railway bridges are common problems ,which have serious impact on the service life of the railway bridge .A non-equal interval GM （1 ,1） prediction model based on grey system theory is proposed to pre-dict the crack width of the railway concrete bridge .According to the predicted deterioration of bridge conditions ,the ma-intenance plan of BICS can be developed to improve the bridge conditions and train safety .The prediction model was vali-dated by using the crack data of Beiniuchuan Super-large Bridge of Shenshuo Railway from 1996 to 2012 .The results show that the prediction model can accurately predict the crack width of the bridge .The paper also analyzes the effect of BICS injection method applied in Beiniuchuan Super-large Bridge of Shenshuo Railway .Its repair effect on the concrete crack is significant .