基于证据推理的混合型多指标群组决策方法

Multi-attribute Group Decision-Making Method Based on Evidential Reasoning Approach

针对决策方案的属性值为语言评价等级和区间灰数的灰色多指标群组决策问题,提出一种基于证据推理的灰色多指标群组决策方法.首先,根据语言评价信息的概率分布和效用值等价原理确定定性指标和定量指标的信用结构,进而得到群体等级信用结构决策矩阵,然后,依据证据推理方法,对群组评价信息进行合成,求出各方案在各等级的信任度,最后,利用期望方差排序方法确定整个方案集的排序.具体算例表明方法合理有效.

The multi-attribute group decision-making problem is discussed, in which the attribute values are interval grey numbers and linguistic grades, and a new decision-making method by using the analytical ER algorithm is proposed in the paper. First of all, each decision-maker gives brief structure form of qualitative attribute values and quantitative at- tribute values, based on probability distribution of linguistic estimation information utility val- ues equivalence principle, and group grade belief structure decision matrix can be determined. Then, by using the analytical ER algorithm to group estimation information aggregation, belief degrees of each alternative belonging to each linguistic grade are obtained. Finally, or- dering method of expected value ＆ variance are utilized to rank the alternatives. An example shows the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.