加拿大油砂行业现状与“非技术”因素风险分析

Canada′s Oil Sand Industry Today and Analysis of "Non-technical" Factor Risks

加拿大油砂资源丰富,近年来已成为各国投资的热点。其油砂地质储量约1382×10^8bbl,剩余技术可采储量为927×10^8bbl;产量也持续快速增长,2012年达到179.7×10^4bbl/d,2000～2012年年均增长率达到10.1%。自2006年以来,加拿大油砂并购交易总体活跃,但受金融危机、油价波动等因素的影响,期间出现了一定程度的起伏,预计短期内不会再有大手笔的资产交易。目前,在加拿大油砂行业发展中还存在一些问题,如成本及运营费用上涨、环境危机、劳动力匮乏、市场竞争激烈等。另外还有＂非技术＂因素带来的风险,如地缘政治风险、税赋高、环保法规严苛等。中国石油企业在加拿大已拥有多个油砂区块权益,今后如果要进一步大规模参与油砂资源的开发投资,首先应抓住加拿大政府有意推动油气出口多元化的有利时机,通过能源外交带动油砂项目发展,加强与当地或外国石油公司的合作,努力实现油砂外输外销的多元化;同时要加强技术创新,坚持以效益为中心,积极探索学习先进的管理模式与经验;另外要做好基础信息研究,选择合适的开发投资时机。

Canada has rich oil sand resources and has in recent years attracted investors from many countries around the world.The country has about 1382 ×10^8bbl of oil sand in place,including 927 ×10^8bbl of remaining technically recoverable reserves.Canada′ s oil sand production is also growing rapidly,standing at179.7×10^4bbl/d in 2012.The country′s oil sand output grew 10.1% per year on average from 2000 to 2012.Since 2006,oil sand-related mergers and acquisitions as a whole in Canada have been brisk,but fluctuated slightly due to a combination of factors such as the financial crisis and fluctuations in oil prices.In the short term,no major asset transaction is expected.There remain some problems in Canada ′ s oil sand industry,such as rising costs and operating expenses,environmental crisis,shortage of laborers,and intense market competition.There are also risks related to non-technical factors,such as geopolitics,high taxes,and strict environmental regulations.Chinese oil companies now have equities in several oil sand blocks in Canada.If they hope to participate deeper in the investment and development of oil sand resources in Canada,these companies must use the opportunity offered by the Canadian government which is looking at diversifying the country ′s oil and gas exports to push the development of oil sand projects by means of energy diplomacy and strengthen their cooperation with local and foreign oil companies to diversify the transportation and sales of oil sand.They should also strengthen technological innovation,remain efficiency-centered,and actively explore and study advanced managerial mode and experience.Basic information research and choice of timing of making investments in development are also very important.