海水养殖与气象Ⅱ——惠东石斑鱼寒害对气候变暖的响应

Mariculture and MeteorologyⅡ——Impacts of Climate Warming on Epinephelus coioides Chilling in Huidong

冬季低温常给水产养殖造成严重损失,制约了渔业生产发展。本研究揭示了石斑鱼寒害变化特征及其对气候变暖响应规律,分析结果可以指导石斑鱼养殖确定合理的放养时段、评估寒害风险,同时为水产养殖业及政府部门制定防寒减灾决策提供科学依据。利用惠东2011年海水养殖试验点冬季逐日海温及对应气温资料,采用逐步回归分析构建了冬季海温预报方程,代入惠东气象站逐日气象资料得到对应1971—2012年冬季逐日海温资料,根据试验测得的石斑鱼寒害指标,分析了惠东石斑鱼养殖冬季寒害变化特征。结果表明:近42年来惠东地区石斑鱼冬季寒害日数略有减少,大石斑鱼寒害日数多于中石斑鱼,大石斑鱼寒害发生逐日概率有一个升降的变化过程,高发时段为1月1日—2月15日。在未来气候变暖水温升高1℃的情景下,石斑鱼冬季寒害逐日概率显著降低,大石斑鱼平均冬季寒害发生时段显著缩短。平均初寒日期由变暖前的1月4日推迟到变暖后的1月15日,平均终寒日期由变暖前的2月7日提前到变暖后的2月3日。

Winter chill often causes serious damage to aquaculture, which restricts the development of fishery production. Study on Epinephelus coioides chilling characteristics and their response to climate warming is important for fishermen and decision makers in making strategies in determining culturing period, chill risk assessment and against hazardous weather. Based on measured sea temperature and air temperature data of Huidong meteorological station in Guangdong Province in winter 2011, winter sea temperature prediction model was developed using stepwise regression. Daily sea temperatures of winter in 1971—2012 were predicted. Combined daily sea temperature and chill criterion, winter chilling characteristic of Epinepheluscoioides were analyzed. Results showed that winter chill days decreased slightly in 1971—2012 and chill days of adult fish were more than medium fish; Daily chill probability of adult fish increased in mid and late December and decreased in February, with a relative high probability period between Jan 1 and Feb 15. Based on projected data of 1℃ warming, it was estimated that chill days and chilling period for big fish will decreasesignificantly. Besides, average chill first date and last date will be Jan 15 and Feb 3 comparing to Jan 4 and Feb 7 of 1971—2000.