庆阳市53年的降水量变化特征分析

Analysis of Characteristics of Precipitation Changes About 53 Years in Qingyang, Gansu Province

为了分析庆阳市降水的变化特征,以便有针对性地开展为农气象服务,利用环县、庆城、西峰1960—2012年的降水资料,应用变异系数、变化趋势、累计距平及滑动t检验等方法进行分析。结果表明:庆阳市各地降水量的变率均较大,年降水量的总体变化随时间呈减少趋势,减少速率:庆城>环县>西峰;通过季降水趋势分析,年降水量的减少主要是由于春季、秋季的降水量减少造成;环县和庆城的降水量前期增加,中后期减少;西峰前中期增加,后期减少,且均具有突变的特征,环县和庆城的降水突变点在1968年,西峰的降水突变点在2001年。因降水呈减少趋势,对农、林、牧业生产造成了不利影响。同时,由于降水变率大,大多数年份防旱和抗洪的压力较大。

In order to reveal precipitation characteristics and server for agro-meteorology, the author used precipitation data from 1960 to 2012 in Huanxian, Qingcheng and Xifeng County of Qingyang City in Gansu Province, used the coefficient of variation, changing trend, the cumulative anomaly and T test for analysis. The result showed that： the precipitation variable rate was large and the precipitation decreased in Qingyang City, the annual precipitation decrease was mainly caused by the spring and autumn decrease in precipitation. It had mutation characteristics. The mutation point of Huanxian and Qingcheng was in 1968, Xifeng＇s was in 2001. Tended to decrease due to precipitation, had a negative impact on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry production. Meanwhile, due to the large variability of precipitation, most of the year was drought and flood pressure.