海洋灾害与海洋经济发展的脉冲响应分析

Impulse reseponse analysis of marine disasters and marine economic development

在测度我国1996～2012年海洋经济发展综合指数的基础上,采用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数分析方法,探索海洋灾害的发生对我国海洋经济发展综合指数的影响机理及其在时序维度上的动态特征。结果表明：一方面海洋灾害对海洋经济发展的影响总体呈现负效应,另一方面海洋经济发展对海洋灾害的发生也有一定影响。此外,适当滞后期后,海洋灾害和海洋经济发展对于海洋经济发展的单位冲击呈现相一致的反应。

This thesis is based on the measure of 1996 ～ 2011 Maritime composite index of economic development based on the generalized impulse response function analysis methods of the VAR model,exploring the mechanism of ocean disasters effect on the comprehensive development index of the marine economy and its dynamic characteristics on timing dimension. The results shows that： on the one hand marine disaster has an overall negative effect on marine economic development; on the other hand,the development of marine economy also have some impact of marine disasters. In addition,after a appropriate lag period,there is a consistent response between the development of marine economic and marine disasters after a units of marine economic development impact.