安徽省消费与经济增长关系实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Relation between Consumption and Economy Growth in Anhui Province

通过检验安徽省1995～2011年政府消费、农村居民消费、城镇居民消费和经济增长之间的因果关系发现：安徽省经济增长是农村居民消费、城镇居民消费、政府消费的格兰杰原因,但农村居民消费、城镇居民消费、政府消费不是安徽省经济增长的格兰杰原因;并利用VAR模型分析得出：城镇居民消费对经济增长所产生的作用比农村居民消费和政府消费大;农村居民消费对经济增长、政府消费、城镇居民消费都具有负向冲击作用;政府消费对经济增长、农村居民消费也都有正向的冲击作用,但作用不强.

In this paper, through the examination of the relation among the consumption of Anhui provincial government, rural residents, urban residents and the economic growth from 1995 to 2011, the result suggests that economic growth is the Granger cause of rural residents, urban residents and government consumption, but the consumption of urban residents, rural residents and government consumption is not the cause of economic growth. And by using VAR model analysis, it can be found that the consumption of urban residents plays the most important role in economic growth; the consumption of rural residents has negative impulse on the consumption of urban residents, government consumption and economic growth; Government consumption has positive impulse on the consumption of rural residents and economic growth, but the effect is unobvious.