我国财政长期可持续性评估:基于TSLS回归的比较结果

Assessment on China's Long-term Fiscal Sustainability: Based on the Comparison Results of TSLS Regression

采用联立方程的三阶段逐步回归法,根据不同时期的财政反应系数和持续系数大小,剖析中国公共财政可持续状况的动态变化。实证结果表明,中国公共财政出现明显的阶段特征。改革开放前,财政收支反应系数大于财政收支持续系数,而在改革开放后,财政收支的持续系数大于其反应系数。目前,中国公共财政尚可持续,却也出现了需要关注的预警信号。为了维持可持续财政体系,需要控制财政支出"刚性",调整支出结构。

In the paper, the three-stage simultaneous equation stepwise regression m^thod is adopted and according to the different periods of fiscal responsiveness and persistence coefficients,we can analyze the dynamic change.The empirical results show that the public finance presents a significant periodic characteristic.Before the reform and opening-up policy, the reaction coefficients is greater than the fiscal persistence coefficient,But after that, it is smaller than that.Although China＇s current public finances can be sustainable,it also appears early warning signals.In order to establish sustainable fiscal system,China need control spending ＂rigidity＂,and adjust the expenditure structure.