土地、孩子与职业稳定性——外来工入户意愿的影响因素研究

Land, Child and Occupation's Stability ——A study of the influence factors of migrant workers' household intention

本文基于对珠三角和长三角十九个城市调查的4000多份问卷资料,对外来工(农民工)在打工所在城市的入户意愿及其影响因素进行分析,结果发现:在实施积分入户的政策条件下,农民工中的大多数人并不愿意入户,想入户者不到四分之一(24.56%)。影响入户意愿的重要因素或机制是土地、孩子和工作稳定性。农民工在城市入户是一个带有农民价值观念的理性选择过程。现阶段的政策构想应该是"一家两制",即中青年农民工个人率先落户城市,但允许他们及父母继续保留在农村的土地,享受农村的土地保障。

Based on the 4000 questionnaires of migrant workers in 19 cities in Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, this paper analyzed migrant workers’ intention of transferring their household registration into the city they worked and its influence factors. The results showed as follows： most of migrant workers did not want to transfer their household registration into the city even the local government has the positive policy which encourage them to do so. Number of migrant workers who want to transfer their household registration into city is less than a quarter （24.56%）. Important fac-tors or mechanism influence migrant workers’ household intention include land,child and occupation’s stability. Migrant workers want to transfer their household registration into city or not is a process of rational choice with farmers’ value. Policy ideas of this stage should be “one family with two systems”, which means the young and mid-aged migrant work-ers could transfer their household registration into the city firstly, but their lands and their parents’ lands in the country should be reserved so as to they can enjoy the land security continually.