中国完善生育政策战略研究——基于“十二五”期间放开“单独”的思考

Strategic Research on Improving the Family Planning Policy of China——Based on the Thinking of Implement the Policy of “2-child policy for only-child parent”

生育政策对人口发展具有先导性、递延性,生育政策通过调控出生人口,渐次影响人口发展全局。须在科学预判人口发展趋势的基础上,不同时期制定不同导向的生育政策。通过测算表明,放开"双独"、"单独"、"全面二孩"等生育政策,分别有占总人口4.1%、18.8%、24.0%的人群获益。应遵循"公平性、时机性、渐进性、均衡性"的原则,逐步完善生育政策。

This study considers thatfamily planningpolicyhas the character of guiding and deferring, and family planning policy has influenced population development through birth control, it shall be in the base of predicting population trends to make different orientation in different pe riods of policy ; research calculation shows that the implementation of 2 child policy for ＂only childof both parents＂, ＂only childof the One parents＂,＂ all parents＂ is Respectivelybeneficial to 4.1% ,18.8%, 24.0% of the total population;we should follow theprincipleof faimess,tim ing,progressiveness,balancement, and gradually improve thefamily planning policy.