摘要
Abstract The authors evaluate the performance of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)in simulating the historical(1951-2000)modes of interannual variability in the seasonal mean Northern Hemisphere(NH)500 hPa geopotential height during winter(December-January-February,DJF).The analysis is done by using a variance decomposition method,which is suitable for studying patterns of interannual variability arising from intraseasonal variability and slow variability(time scales of a season or longer).Overall,compared with reanalysis data,the spatial structure and variance of the leading modes in the intraseasonal component are generally well reproduced by the CMIP5 models,with few clear differences between the models.However,there are systematic discrepancies among the models in their reproduction of the leading modes in the slow component.These modes include the dominant slow patterns,which can be seen as features of the Pacific-North American pattern,the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation,and the Western Pacific pattern.An overall score is calculated to quantify how well models reproduce the three leading slow modes of variability.Ten models that reproduce the slow modes of variability relatively well are identified.
Abstract The authors evaluate the performance of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5）in simulating the historical（1951-2000）modes of interannual variability in the seasonal mean Northern Hemisphere（NH）500 hPa geopotential height during winter（December-January-February,DJF）.The analysis is done by using a variance decomposition method,which is suitable for studying patterns of interannual variability arising from intraseasonal variability and slow variability（time scales of a season or longer）.Overall,compared with reanalysis data,the spatial structure and variance of the leading modes in the intraseasonal component are generally well reproduced by the CMIP5 models,with few clear differences between the models.However,there are systematic discrepancies among the models in their reproduction of the leading modes in the slow component.These modes include the dominant slow patterns,which can be seen as features of the Pacific-North American pattern,the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation,and the Western Pacific pattern.An overall score is calculated to quantify how well models reproduce the three leading slow modes of variability.Ten models that reproduce the slow modes of variability relatively well are identified.
基金
supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2010CB951604 and 2012CB956203)
the National Science and Technology Support Program of China(Grant No.2013BAB50B00)
the National Key Technology R&D Program of China(Grant No.2012BAC22B04)
the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(Meteorology)(Grant No.GYHY201006023)
