试用T106资料制作冰雹短期预报

Trial Usage of T106 lnformation to make short-term forecast of hail

通过对 1980年以后桂林市 13站点强冰雹个例资料的统计 ,从天气形势、单站要素指标、关键区物理量等方面归纳出客观定量的预报指标 ,并从中找出相关性好的预报因子 ,用逐步回归方法建立方程 ,结合运用 T10 6格点资料 ,试作冰雹短期预报。

This article makes a statistics of strong hail cases recorded in 13 meteorology stations in Guilin since 1980 and summarizes the objective and quantitative forecast indexes on the basis of analyzing weather situation,elements indexes of a single meteorology station and physical quantity of key area,etc.The forecast factors with good correlation with each other are found out to set up equation by the way of stepwise regression.On this basis,the trial short term forecast of hail is made,combining the use of T106 lattice information.