厄尼诺(El-Nio)与广西异常气候关系研究

Study on Relationship between El-Nio and the abnormal climate in Guangxi

应用统计分析方法 ,分析厄尼诺 (El- Nin ～o)与广西气温、降水及各种灾害性天气的统计特征 ,结果表明厄尼诺对广西的异常气候是有一定影响的 :(1)厄尼诺年 ,广西的月气温、月降水出现异常概率分别为6 9%、 75 % ;(2 )厄尼诺年易出现春、秋季异常低温 ,春季多倒春寒 ,秋季寒露风日数偏多 ;(3)厄尼诺影响 ,引起广西部分江河致洪 ,而引起全区性洪涝机率较小 ,易造成广西异常干旱。

The statistical analysis of the statistical characteristical characteristics of El Nin ~o,the temperature,precipitation and various kinds of disaster weather in Guangxi shows that El Nin ~o play a certain part in the abnormal climate in Guangxi.(1)in the year of El Nin ~o,the probabilities of abnormal monthly temperature and monthly precipitation in Guangxi are 69% and 75% respectively.(2) In the year of El Nin ~o,the abnormal low temperature occurs in spring and autumn,cases of cold spell in later spring are more,and days of cold dew wind in autumn are more.(3)El Nin ~o causes flood in part of rivers in Guangxi and the probability for the regional flood in all rivers in Guangxi is comparatively lowl,therefore,abnormal dry situation occurs in Guangxi in the year of El Nin ~o.