公众预期与货币政策效果分析

Public Expectation and the Analysis of the Monetary Policy

本文针对近年来我国经济出现的通货紧缩现象 ,分析了我国现行利率制度的特点、公众对未来收支和物价变化的预期以及我国现阶段货币政策的实际效果及其制约因素 ,指出刺激消费、有效扩大内需的关键在于改变公众的预期。只有这样才能达到协调货币政策、带动企业和居民投资、进而促进消费增长的目标。

The government of China has adopted a series of expansionary economical policies to solve the problems of the deflation recent years, but the effect was not very remarkable. This paper has analyzed the actual effects of the monetary policy and its restrictive factors according to the public expectation of the income, expenditure and prices. We have got the conclusion that the key to stimulate consumption and expand internal demand is to change the public expectation.