突发性旅游危机预警研究

Early warning study on emergent tourism crisis

针对旅游景区突发危机不确定性的特点,结合国内外关于突发性旅游危机预警方面的研究成果,采用基于指标的模型构建方法,构建了突发性旅游危机预警模型。将三角模糊法和信息熵法相结合形成模糊熵法,综合运用模糊熵法和物元分析法确定指标最终权重,较大程度地弱化了主观因素的作用,并对该模型进行案例应用,在MATLAB平台上对危机预警等级进行仿真。仿真结果表明,该预警模型能够提高危机预警的准确性与科学性,从而降低突发危机的破坏性以及减少给旅游景区、游客等社会各方面带来的损失。

From the perspective of tourism destination, an emergent tourism crisis early warning model is constructed by using the index modeling method based on the domestic and international researches. Triangular fuzzy and information entropy method are combined to form the fuzzy entropy method, which is used to determine the indexes＇ final weight with the extension decision theory, greatly weakening the subjective factors. The results of case application and simulation of Matlab show this method improves the accuracy and scientificity of early warning, thereby reduces the sudden crisis effect and the losses of tourism destination, tourists and other social aspects.