加拿大原油生产和贸易现状及趋势

Current Status and Development Prospects of Canadian Crude Oil Production and Trade

加拿大石油资源丰富,并以非常规的油砂资源为主。油砂的开发规模从2000年逐步开始提高,油砂沥青产量占加拿大原油总产量从1998年的27%提高至2011年的56%。预计2030年,加拿大的原油产量将达到624万桶/d,其中油砂产量将达到500万桶/d。目前,加拿大油砂资源98%出口到美国,尽管美国的能源独立政策使得其能源对外依存度发生显著下降,但是,对未来加拿大出口美国的能源没有本质的影响。与此同时,由于北美和欧洲市场的原油消费需求放缓;美国页岩油产量大幅增长;北美地区油价长期处于国际油价的"价格洼地",这些因素将推动加拿大寻求开辟太平洋通道,加入国际原油市场来提高油砂资源的经济效益。

Canada is the third richest country in oil resources with unconventional oil sands as the main resource and the exploration of oil sands has been increased each year since 2000.The bitumen production accounted for Canadian crude oil total output increased from 27%in 1998 to 56%in 2011.It is expected that Canada's oil production will reach 6.24 million b/d by 2030,among which oil sands production will be 5 million b/d.Currently,98%of Canada's oil sands resources is exported to the United States.Although the energy independent policy of the United States makes its dependence on foreign energy decreased significantly,there is no entitative influence on future Canadian oil exports to the United States.The factors of the growth of shale oil production in the United States,slowdown of the demand for crude oil consumption in North American and European market and price depression in North America will drive Canada to seek the Pacific export channel and enter into international crude oil market for improving the economic benefit of oil sand resources.