稻茬小麦纹枯病发生流行程度中长期预测技术初探

A preliminary research on the medium and long term prediction technique for epidemic degree of wheat sharp eyespot in wheat following rice cropping system

通过对稻茬小麦纹枯病2001-2011年发生情况研究分析,选取年前11月下旬病株率s（%）、10-12月雾日数（d）、12-2月日照时数（h）、3-5月份降雨量（mm）4个预测因子,建立病害发生程度中长期预测模式,历史回测符合率98.5%,2012年经预测检验,符合率95.9%,与发生实况基本一致。

Occurrence of wheat sharp eyespot in wheat following rice cropping system was analyzed from the year of 2001 to 2011,in which 4 predictive factor,such as disease incidence of the last ten-day of November of the previous year, fog days from October to December,sunshine duration from December to February of next year,rainfall from March to May,were selected to build a model for long term prediction of epidemic degree. Result showed that the coincidence rate back to the test was 98. 5% and predictive consequence was in line with occurrence of wheat sharp eyespot according to the test of the year 2012.