货币政策与经济发展联动关系的实证研究——基于VAR模型

The Empirical Study on the Relationship between the Monetary Policy and the Economic Development——Based on VAR model

本文首先阐述了中国货币政策与经济发展之间的关系,建立了货币政策与经济发展联动关系传导路径,并采用VAR模型对中国1998年2季度至2013年1季度数据进行实证研究。结果显示:货币政策长期看是中性的,不过货币政策短期内对经济发展的影响不容忽视,同时经济发展状况对货币政策的反作用也应关注。中央银行应根据经济形势审慎选择货币政策工具,同时应注重货币政策的前瞻性、透明度和信息披露。

The paper firstly expounds the relationship between the monetary policy and the economic development in China, es-tablishes the conduction path of the correlation between the monetary policy and the economic development, and makes the empiricalstudy on data from quarter 2 of 1998 to quarter 1 of 2013 in China by adopting VAR model. The results show that in the long term, themonetary policy is neutral, but the impact of the monetary policy on the economic development cannot be ignored in the short tenn.And at the same time the adverse effects of the economic development on the monetary policy should be paid attention to. The centralbank should prudentially choose monetary policy tools according to the economic situations, and pay attention to the prospective,transparency and disclosure of the monetary policy.