基于经济安全的粮食供给安全程度分析

Analysis of Safety Level of Food Supply Based on Economic Security

粮食供给安全对国家经济安全有着重要的影响。文章在梳理粮食供给安全相关概念与评价指标的基础上,划分粮食供给安全的区间,并就2013年中国粮食供给安全状况作了结构性预测与情景分析。结果表明只有当减产幅度达到25%时,粮食供给才会出现无法避免的危机。

The security of food supply has important influence on national economic security. The paper first analyzed some of the food-supply-security-related concepts and assessment indexes, and then determined the interval of food supply security, and then made structural and scenario prediction based on the food supply security condition of 2013. The results show that only when crop failure reaches 25% can a crisis be inevitable.