养老金投资运营制度风险识别与规避——基于SWOT矩阵的分析

The risks' Identification and Avoiding of the Pensions' Investment and Operation: Based on the SWOT Model's Analysis

养老金进入资本市场,首先要面临制度设计风险。制度设计风险不仅包括静态风险,同时包括内、外部因素互动中产生的衍生风险。本文依据SWOT模型,识别出在内部优势和劣势、外部机遇和挑战的影响下,养老金投资运营制度可能面临寻租风险、稳定性风险、制度刚性风险和贬值风险。在外部因素的作用下,制度本身的碎片化风险和道德风险可能增强,而泛行政化风险和贬值风险可能削弱。根据不同风险的特点,本文建议采用WT策略规避寻租风险、稳定性风险和碎片化风险,采用SO策略规避贬值风险和泛行政化风险,采用ST策略规避道德风险和金融市场风险,采用WO策略规避泛行政化风险和碎片化风险。

When the pensions enter the capital market, firstly they will confront the system design risks, the risks include static risks and derivative risks which are caused by interactions of internal and external reasons. The paper has indentified the rent risk, stability risk, rigidity risk and deprecation risks. In the effect of external reasons, the fragme and deprecation ntation risk and moral risks should be more strength, yet the comprehensive bureaucracy risk risks should be weakened. According to different characteristics, we suggest to adopt the WT Strategy to avoid the rent risk, stability risk and fragmentation risks, SO Strategy to avoid the deprecation risk and comprehensive bureaucracy risk, ST Strategy to avoid the moral risk and financial market risk, WO Strategy to avoid the fragmentation risk and comorehensive bureaucracy risk.