老年人健康与长期护理的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Elderly Health and Long-term Care

中国日益严峻的老龄化与高龄化趋势对我国养老、医疗、老年长期护理带来巨大压力,潜在的长期护理需求将是老年人家庭面临的最大的财产风险之一。在对中国老年人长期护理需求分析的基础上,探讨老年人的长期护理规划,利用面板Logit模型,根据2005年、2008 2009年"中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查"(CLHLS)数据,从实证角度,讨论中国老年人健康与长期护理需求的影响因素,并且分析其中的性别与城乡差异。研究结论:老年人的居住模式、经济来源、医疗状况、婚姻状况、老年人房产等因素对于老年人的健康状况和长期护理需求影响显著,老年人健康状况直接影响老年人长期护理需求和护理成本的高低。因此,有必要通过改善老年人健康水平提高健康老龄化比例来降低老年长期护理需求和成本。

The trend of China＇s population ageing is becoming more and more serious, which has brought enormous pressure on elderly＇s pension, health service, long-term care. Potential long- term care demand will be one of the biggest property risks for the old families. Using panel data of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey （CLHLS） from 2005 and 2008-2009, the key factors of the elderly health and long-term care demand are analyzed. We also investigate the gender and rural-urban differences. The study found that the influence of the elderly living arrangement, economy resources, health status, marital status, medical condition, and elderly housing are significant to the elderly health and long-term care needs. The elderly health directly affects the elderly long-term care demand and care cost. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the demand for long-term care and cost by improving the elderly health level.