基于非均衡理论的我国房地产市场供求分析

The Supply-demand Analysis of Real Estate Market in China Based on non-equilibrium Theory

运用非均衡理论和方法，通过构建双曲线计量模型，对1987-2011年我国房地产市场供求状况进行了实证分析。结果表明这25年间我国房地产市场经历了正向非均衡-负向非均衡-基本均衡-正向非均衡等四个阶段，当前房地产市场的非均衡是多种因素造成的。为此，应从总供给管理、区分差别化需求、多层次房地产市场体系构建、改善宏观调控有效性等方面着手，逐步降低当前我国房地产市场的非均衡强度。

By using non-equilibrium theory,this paper analyzes the supply status of real estate market by hyperbolic model, therefore, as the empirical analysis demonstrates, the real estate market has gone through a number of phases,positive unbalanced-negative unbalanced-balanced-positive unbalanced in the past 25 years,because of the various factors contributed to the unbalanced of real estate market,it is neces sary to decrease the unbalanced intensity in real estate market from managing the general supply, the de mand for difference,constructing the multi-level real estate system,improving macroeconomic regulation.