产品内贸易对亚太地区经济周期协同性的影响分析

Trade in Part and Component Products and Business Cycle Synchronization between Asia-Pacific Economies

笔者基于2000年-2010年亚太地区十五个主要经济体的相关数据,实证分析了产品内贸易对于区域内各国经济周期协同性的影响.结果显示,双边产品内贸易强度对于经济周期协同性具有显著的正向影响,近年亚太地区产品内贸易的发展使各国经济呈现出显著的相互依赖性.研究结果还显示,双边经济结构相似度越高,经济周期协同性程度越强,而金融一体化则会弱化协同性.产品内贸易的深入发展是亚太地区国际分工格局的一个基本趋势,在此背景下,加强双边与多边合作对于各国保障其经济的稳定发展极为必要.

Based on the annual information of 15 Asia-Pacific countries for the period of 2000-2010, this paper studies the impact of trade in part and component on regional business cycle synchronisation. The findings show that trade in part and component products has a positive effect on business cycle synchronization, and the similar industrial structure leads to more synchronised business cycle; at the same time, deeper financial integration weakens synchronisation. Our findings suggest that a multilateral cooperation between A- sia-Pacific economies is necessary for stable growth.