人口年龄结构、经济增长与社会福利——一个“人口红利”的理论分析框架

Population Age Structure,Economic Growth and Social Welfare—— A Theory Analyzing Framework for Demographic Dividend

“人口红利”理论来自于实证研究,缺乏一个直观的理论分析框架.笔者在Ramsey模型中引入人口年龄结构变量,建立分析人口年龄结构、经济增长与社会福利的理论分析框架,并采用1965年-2009年143个国家的面板数据进行实证研究,结果显示,抚养比的提高会降低经济增长率,反之,则提高经济增长率;抚养比降低的国家具有较高的社会福利水平;14岁以下人口比例增加1个百分点,人均GDP增长率下降1.5个百分点;65岁及以上人口比例增加1个百分点,人均GDP增长率下降2.8个百分点,后者对经济增长的影响是前者的2倍.

＂Demographic dividend＂ theory comes from empirical research, with lack of an intuitive theoretical framework. This paper introduces the variable of population age structure into the Ramsey model to build the theoretical framework to analyze the impact on e- conomic growth and social welfare. Then an empirical study has been done using 1965 -2009 panel data from 143 countries. It can be concluded that, the increase of dependency ratio will reduce economic growth rate, on the contrary, it will increase economic growth rate; countries with a low dependency ratio have a high social welfare; if the proportion below 14 years increases by 1 percentage, the growth rate of GDP per capita will decrease by 1.5 percentage; if the proportion above 65 years increases by 1 percentage, the growth rate of GDP per capita will decrease by 2.8 percentage, the latter is 2 times of the former.