中国农产品膳食暴露评估模型构建初探

Preliminary Study on Model Construction of Dietary Exposure Assessment for Chinese Agricultural Products

由于缺乏中国农产品消费量的详细数据,现有的精细膳食暴露评估模型难以被直接使用,急需构建适用于评价中国农产品质量安全的新模型。本研究以农产品中危害因子的化学物浓度参数为关注点,从参数设置、模型假设和算法实现层面构建新模型。在SAS/IML环境下完成了对模型演算过程的程序化,实现了对模型输出结果变异性和不确定性的拆分以及定量描述。运用该模型进行实例分析,并将结果与前人的研究结论作对比验证分析,结果表明:该模型输出的结果与前人结论具有很强的可比性、一致性,且能定量给出相应结果的变异性和不确定性,输出信息更为丰富。该模型基于合理的假设和可靠的算法构建,适用于中国农产品膳食暴露评估,可为中国农产品质量安全监管提供一定的参考依据。

The existing refined dietary exposure assessment models were difficult to be used directly for lacking detailed consumption data of Chinese agricultural products. Thus, a suitable model was in urgent need for evaluating safety and quality of agricultural products. This paper aimed to construct a new model from parameter setting, model hypothesis and algorithm implementation, which took the residue/concentration parameter as the major concern. The simulation model was established under the circumstance of SAS/IML, and the separation and quantification of variability and uncertainty has also been accomplished in the framework. To verify the reliability of the model, a case was analyzed using it. And the paper also compared the result with previous studies, which indicated strong comparability and consistence between them. Meanwhile the new model could offer the variability and uncertainty of the output, which made the evaluation results more reliable and precise. Based on reasonable assumptions and reliable algorithm, the improved model was feasible and realistic, which was specific for the dietary exposure assessment of Chinese agricultural products, and also suitable for the supervision of safety and quality of agricultural products.